Causal analysis of the system of central places and prediction of functional regional structure in the administrative province of Vaasa, Finland

Abstract

The study was performed through producing or utilizing available­ predictions of part‑factors in regional structure (distribution of population, systems of centres and spheres of influence, communication system, and vertical dimensions of spheres of influence of centres), and by uniting these into a total picture.

The main task was a construction of a future system of centres and spheres of influence, on the basis of an analysis of the functional system at the beginning of the 1960's and the 1970's. Correlation and regression technique in addition to potential technique were applied as methods of examination. Population in the sphere of influence, in which the location of population was taken into consideration by means of weighting coefficients representing the frequency of visits to the centres, alone explained 98 per cent of the variation in the number of functional points, and the transformed population factor explained over 91 per cent of the variation in the number of functions. Classification of cen­tres on the basis of the centralities obtained by the regression and poten­tial models yielded a result which corresponded well with the empir­ically‑determined qualitative central classes.

Prediction of centralities was carried out by multiple regression models as well as by the potential model. The centres were classified on the basis of the centralities obtained. The final central classification was the result of summarizing three classification results. A comparison with the classifications at earlier points of time indicated that on the higher hierarchical levels changes are slight, and on the lower levels the system of centres is becoming more wide‑meshed.

Spheres of influence were delimited using formulas derived from Newton's law of gravitation. In the shape and size of the spheres of influence, common features with the regional system presented by Isard could be observed, but deviations also appeared. The predicted system of centres and spheres of influence could best be described by the expression 'mixed hierarchies'.

As part‑factors in the communication system, private car and van traffic, railway and air traffic and tele‑communications were analysed from the point of view of the future. Of these, the private car and van traffic was selected to represent the communication system in the synthesis.

In the cartographic synthesis the predicted part‑factors of the regional structure were combined on the same map using different colours. In the chorological synthesis, the elements were transformed to points in the chorological matrix, and the points were summed up by squares. The classification of points produced regional types, which were called functional cores, zones of intensive interaction, functional intermediary zones and functional periphery.