The demographic transition: model and reality

Abstract

The demographic transition model is tested against the observed or estimated birth and death rates a (recent) year in the countries of the world. The calibration of the model may have been realistic for European countries which made the transition over a long period, ending some decades ago, but is far off the mark for most other countries in the world which started at higher levels and where death rates dive much deeper than suggested by the model. The present situation in industrial countries, with fertility rates far below reproduction, is also discussed.