A procedure for determining the expansion of urban areas as exemplified by the town of Kuopio

Abstract

One procedure applicable to the determination of suitable expansion alterna­tives for the built‑up area of a town is developed and tested experimentally on a medium‑sized Finnish town Kuopio of about 60 000 inhabitants, comparisons being made with actual past expansion and plans for future building.

The built‑up area of urban character and its corresponding expansion zone are defined on a grid matrix, employing as a criterion the area efficiency of each grid square, a measure which proved straightforward and easy to handle. The factors governing the direction of urban areal expansion are classified on the basis both of the influence that they exercise and of the manner in which they may be controlled. Values for these factors are then obtained for the town studied. Stepwise regression analysis is employed in the weighting of the factors.

A multi‑phase simulation model is constructed for the determination of the expansion areas, containing deterministic features and also a stochastic element. The model is found to yield realistic results, and the procedure as a whole appears to point to the same expansion alternatives as had been chosen by the urban planners for the long‑term development of the town in question.